Mercedes Baku Pace May Not Reflect the Real F1 Order

Mercedes dominated Thursday practice in Baku, but the team believes its pace advantage is larger than the real performance gap heading into qualifying and the race.

Mercedes sends a warning in Baku

George Russell delivered a strong opening day for Mercedes at the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

The Briton topped both practice sessions on Thursday. He finished FP2 with a 1:43.347, putting Mercedes team-mate Kimi Antonelli 0.552 seconds behind and Max Verstappen another 0.275 seconds back.

The headline gap looked even more impressive because the first non-Mercedes car was 0.827 seconds slower than Russell.

However, Mercedes does not believe that difference represents the true competitive order.

Bradley Lord, the team’s deputy team principal, pointed to the different tyre runs and track evolution during FP2. Mercedes completed more qualifying-style runs on the soft tyre, while several rivals had fewer opportunities to extract the same performance.

George Russell topped both Thursday sessions as Mercedes opened the Azerbaijan weekend with strong one-lap pace.

The difference was particularly visible in FP2.

Russell reached his best time after several runs on the soft compound. Verstappen, meanwhile, had already shown competitive pace on the medium tyre before switching to the softer rubber.

That makes a direct comparison more complicated.

Mercedes also benefited from a circuit that was improving with every lap. Baku started dusty and slippery, and lap times continued to fall as more rubber went down.

Red Bull was surprised by the gap

Red Bull arrived in Baku with its latest major upgrade package.

Despite that, technical director Pierre Waché admitted that he did not expect such a large difference to Mercedes, particularly on the long straights.

The main question now is whether Mercedes has found a genuine performance advantage or simply optimized its soft-tyre runs more effectively.

That distinction could become clear in qualifying.

Kimi Antonelli’s Mercedes prepares for running in Baku during a disrupted Thursday for the championship leader.

Isack Hadjar also noticed the difference.

After returning to F1 following his wrist injury, the Red Bull driver said Mercedes looked outside his team’s reach based on Thursday’s pace.

That view was understandable after seeing Russell lead FP1 and FP2. Still, the competitive picture can change quickly on a street circuit.

Antonelli’s difficult Thursday makes the result harder to read

Mercedes also had an unusual problem on the other side of the garage.

Kimi Antonelli lost much of FP1 because of a hydraulic issue. He completed only nine laps in the session and stopped after reporting a loss of hydraulic pressure.

The problem also affected FP2.

Mercedes fitted a replacement power unit during the break, which delayed Antonelli’s return to the track. He therefore missed the opening part of the second session as well.

Despite that, Antonelli recovered to finish second in FP2.

That result is important because it came with significantly less running than Russell. It also suggests Mercedes had enough performance to recover quickly once the car was back on track.

Antonelli still finished second in FP2 despite losing significant track time because of Mercedes’ hydraulic issue.

Mercedes said the power unit change was precautionary and that the replacement unit was already within the team’s available pool. As a result, Antonelli did not face a grid penalty from the change.

That allowed him to salvage an important part of the weekend.

More importantly, his lap time gives Mercedes a second reference point.

Mercedes says its race pace is much closer

The strongest warning against reading too much into Thursday comes from Mercedes itself.

Russell said the car felt competitive over a single lap, but he also believed race pace was closely matched with McLaren and Red Bull.

That is a very different picture from the 0.827-second gap seen at the top of the FP2 order.

Bradley Lord made the same point.

He expects the gaps to tighten once all teams complete comparable tyre runs and qualifying begins. Mercedes therefore does not want Thursday’s times to create unrealistic expectations.

The track layout also contributes to the uncertainty.

Baku combines extremely slow corners with one of the longest full-throttle sections of the F1 calendar. Straight-line efficiency matters, but so do traction, braking and confidence through the narrow castle section. Mercedes itself describes the circuit as one of the most demanding combinations of speed and precision on the calendar.

Mercedes has no new upgrade in Baku

There is another important detail.

Mercedes has not introduced any upgrades for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. McLaren, Red Bull and several midfield teams have brought new components to Baku, while Mercedes is running its existing package.

That makes the Thursday performance particularly interesting.

Mercedes is producing this level of one-lap pace without a new package specifically designed for Baku.

The team has already confirmed that it plans to bring a larger upgrade package to Malaysia later in the triple-header.

For now, however, Mercedes is relying on its current car.

Qualifying will provide a better answer

The next session should reveal much more.

Qualifying will give every team the same basic objective: extract the maximum performance from the soft tyre over one lap.

That should reduce some of the uncertainty created by Thursday’s different run plans.

If Mercedes remains several tenths ahead, the team’s rivals will have stronger evidence that the W17 genuinely has an advantage in Baku.

If the gaps shrink sharply, Lord’s explanation will have been validated.

For now, the safest conclusion is that Mercedes has looked extremely strong, but Thursday practice did not provide a complete picture of the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix competitive order.

Russell’s double practice lead is significant. The 0.827-second gap to Verstappen in FP2 is impressive, but tyre preparation, track evolution and different run plans mean qualifying remains the more reliable test of Mercedes’ true advantage.